Why I like Deere Stock, the Tesla, or Waymo of Self-Driving Farming.

Do you like time travel? Let me take you back to 2009. These, the Halcyon days of my life in college. I picked up a book at a Barnes and Noble by the Promenade called Jubak’s Picks, Jim was an editor at MSN money and I thought his articles were often well-stated simple views on complex topics. Here is the website, its style is dare I say pretty campy: https://www.jubakpicks.com/.

He introduced me to a thesis: the world population is going to get larger, therefore we will need more food. While that sounds basic, it's also 80% of the plot in Interstellar.

So how do you get more food? You get more efficient. More Synergy, here is a circa 2009 meme of 30 Rock about Synergy.

The spicer to this thesis is while the population increases, the land available decreases. Therefore we need Deere tractor’s evolution to increase crop yields. For me, I’ve wanted more to this thought.

The above anecdote is valuable because learning market narratives takes time and is a pursuit that takes a lot of reading. Also, I did not buy Deere in 2009 as I appreciated his incite but was left wanting more.

Enter More. Self-Driving Tractors are coming and many are already semi-autonomous.

Deere calls this service precision Ag. CHECK LINK and Deere will give Farmer’s their time back and create a service as a software (SaaS). Self-Driving cars are difficult because there are so many damn variables. Including your aunt Karen driving 5 miles below the speed limit and your Uncle Morty paying daily homage to tailgating everybody on the road without the hamburgers and beer. Did I mention teenagers? Where are their fewer Karens, Morty’s, and Teenager? Farms.

From Deere’s perspective, they get reoccurring revenue, this makes their business less cyclical. This makes Deere more resilient when economic downturns occur and potentially allows the stock to be re-rated as stock with cutting-edge tech. That's bullish for investors.

Precision Ag grew by 40% last year, it feels like early innings to this trend.